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Friday, July 2, 2010

Gallup Economic Tracking Looking Prescient

On Thursday, July 1, Gallup reported: "Statistical analysis based on Gallup’s underemployment rate and Job Creation Index suggests the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday morning will report a June unemployment rate in the 9.5% to 9.7% range, depending on the seasonal adjustments and size of the workforce. This contrasts with the consensus expectation of a slight increase in the U.S. unemployment rate, to 9.8%."

On Friday, July 2, the
government reported that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 9.5% in June from 9.7% the prior month.

On the prior Thursday, June 24, Gallup reported the headline, "U.S. Economic Confidence Depressed in June." This past Tuesday, June 29, the Conference Board reported its Consumer Confidence Index plunged in June.

Daily tracking of key economic measures is thus looking prescient this week, as often has been the case. Our ability to get an advanced read on economic indicators such as consumer confidence, underemployment/unemployment, and consumer spending is the result of our continuous, nightly surveying of 1,000 respondents -- meaning Gallup survey results are more timely and more accurate than other survey-based indicators.


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